The future remains uncertain. Macro investments evolve around probability, bets on economic trends such as GDP growth, money supply or inflation, and around timing. Ana Balat believes advisers need to stay on the ground long enough to understand the bearings of new and emerging markets. We decided early on to work on location, and on a real-time and first-hand basis, effectively moving out our “on-the-ground presence” to emerging markets. One has to source local facts, seek exposure to the cities, streets, factories, institutions, corporation shareholders, government officials, and languages of the markets. In other words, one has to meet with real people, and to work in real economies, to get it right - and to get to the right transaction. Financial markets data, and radical analytical discipline are an integral part of our approach. In order to succeed in the market, one needs to assemble conflicting data into one comprehensive ledger. Eighteenth century Chinese intellectuals, who conducted avant-la-lettre empirical research in the humanities in China, once called the approach “Kaozheng”, or evidential research. It brought, in earlier times, methodical, rigorous approaches to fields such as mathematics and geography, consistently developing rules for assessing evidence and creating progress.